![]() They also perform a new function, while electric cars would do a job that, apart from environmental impacts, internal combustion already handles very well. “In the longer term, consumers want a payback, so electric vehicles will need to compete with internal combustion.â€Ĭomparisons with consumer electronics aren’t valid: Those gadgets are far less expensive and complex. ![]() €œFirst-adopters will buy an electric car because they want to make a difference,†Hillebrand says. Which means, even assuming no electricity cost, on strictly economic terms the battery car can’t be priced more than $9,000 above an internal-combustion alternative. At $3 per gallon the fuel would cost $900 or, over 10 years, $9,000. Driving a typical 12,000 miles a year at 40 would consume 300 gallons of gas. terms — 36 miles per American gallon (6.5 L/100 km), and many will exceed 40. With the new Canadian and American fuel-efficiency standards, cars will average — in Hillebrand’s U.S. Fast charging is also expensive and would still take 30 minutes, which “is not that fast,†Hillebrand says. Two proposed solutions are flawed: Battery swapping would be too costly, given the inventory each swap station would require. ![]() That’s fine for suburban commuters but not for longer trips. With the exception of the expensive Tesla, current electric cars go less than 180 km between charges. Range anxiety won’t be solved until lithium air or some other breakthrough is ready, likely not for 15 or 20 years. The process is repeated with the second generation, which will invariably be better but still not good enough to go mainstream. “Until you see the feedback, how do you know what to improve?†Further development must follow then, assembly lines must be built. Work might already be underway on the next generation, but it can’t proceed without assessing Version 1. ![]() It takes time for technologies to penetrate the marketplace: “2020 is right around the corner and the next three or four years are already planned out.†The first electric vehicles — Nissan’s Leaf is a year away — will sell to fleets for trials and a few early-adopters. He cites several reasons electric vehicles will be slow in coming: He is, though, concerned about predictions of “phenomenal†growth — for example, that electrics might account for 10 per cent of new car sales, perhaps 1.5 million units, in North America by 2020. In an interview, Hillebrand says he’s not turning his back on battery power. Unlike plug-in hybrids, they aren’t ready for prime time and won’t be for many years. So when the guy who heads its Centre for Transportation Research suggests we cool our expectations for these vehicles, he’s worth a listen.Įlectrics such as Tesla’s Roadster “may have a place in the market based on excitement and performance, but not for the purpose of everyday utility,†Don Hillebrand said at a recent conference of the Society of Automotive Engineers. The lab is working on advancing the current generation of lithium-ion power plants, while also investigating a likely game-changer, lithium air. The Argonne National Laboratory, near Chicago, is a major player in the development of batteries for electric cars.
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